FanPost

2014 World Cup Futures Odds and Betting Predictions

The next World Cup doesn’t start in Brazil until June 12, 2014, but thanks to Bovada we don’t have to wait nearly that long to bet on the tournament. In fact, we can bet on World Cup futures odds right now. Here’s a look at some of the highlights of the very early numbers along with some betting predictions:

Brazil (7/2)

Brazil is the first team qualified for the tournament as the host, so t doesn’t have to endure the stress of qualifying. The downside is that that means that it won’t be as tested as others, and we won’t have as much of a sense of its strength as others. Still, the Brazilians are obviously a very talented team that is going to be a real threat. They are also the most public of teams, and will be particularly heavily bet because they are at home. Therefore, value is going to be in short supply. I am not very fond of this price, but I’m really going to hate it when the public unleashes on it and it falls closer to the tournament, so I guess there is value now relative to the future.

Argentina (9/2)

The Argentinians weren’t sharp early in qualifying, and they lost a game against Venezuela that never should have been close. They have gotten their act together recently, though, and are looking as strong as they can. Three guys in CONMEBOL qualifying have scored seven goals in nine games, and two of them are from Argentina. Therefore, this team is obviously explosive. I really like this team, and playing close to home should be an advantage. However, they have made a bad habit of underperforming in the last five World Cups, so I don’t see any value in this price.

Spain (9/2)

After winning the last three major tournaments they have played in, the Spaniards are obviously a major threat. They have been solid in qualifying play to date, though they are clearly playing like they aren’t worried about it and will only do what they need. Their group allows them that luxury - France is the only legitimate test. The first Euro win was in back 2008, so there are some concerns about age and depth. What is so remarkable about this team right now, though, is that the next generation that is coming along is potentially even better than the current one. Compared to Argentina this is an attractive price.

Germany (8/1)

Compared to what we have seen, I love this price. The Germans were semifinalists at the last World Cup and Euro 2012, and they seem to be built to peak for 2014. They are consistently solid at the World Cup, and they will again be a factor here.

Netherlands (16/1)

The Dutch burned mountains of bettors’ money at Euro 2012 with their horrific play. That makes them hard to trust, and I believe their issues there were systemic and not a fluke. No chance I’d bet on them at this or any price.

England (18/1)

I like England right now. The problem, though, is that the English are a very public team that is always overbet because people can’t be honest about what they really are. At 25/1 or 30/1 I’d be interested, but this price is too low.

Mexico (28/1)

If you’re looking for a longshot, I’d end the search at the Mexicans. Though it’s a different team, their Olympic gold medal is a good sign of where the program is going. They are deep and talented, and they have looked almost flawless in qualifying. They have been knocking on the door of an international breakthrough for years, and this could be their time. The price is right — especially compared to lower prices.

All the odds

Beware of what you are betting on here because some teams just aren’t going to win. Canada, for example, is actively listed at 1500/1 despite the fact that they are already eliminated from contention.

Brazil - 7/2

Argentina - 9/2

Spain - 9/2

Germany - 8/1

Holland - 16/1

Italy - 16/1

England - 18/1

Uruguay - 22/1

France - 25/1

Mexico - 28/1

Portugal - 28/1

Chile - 40/1

USA - 40/1

Belgium - 40/1

Paraguay - 66/1

Russia - 66/1

Colombia - 100/1

Croatia - 100/1

Ghana - 100/1

Ivory Coast - 100/1

Serbia - 100/1

Denmark - 125/1

Turkey - 125/1

Cameroon - 150/1

Czech Republic - 150/1

Ecuador - 150/1

Japan - 150/1

Nigeria - 150/1

Norway - 150/1

South Korea - 150/1

Sweden - 150/1

Australia -200/1

Bulgaria - 200/1

Poland - 200/1

Slovenia - 200/1

Switzerland - 200/1

Ukraine - 200/1

Egypt - 250/1

Hungary - 250/1

Peru - 250/1

Republic of Ireland - 250/1

Scotland - 250/1

Slovakia - 250/1

Venezuela - 250/1

Algeria - 300/1

Austria - 300/1

Israel - 300/1

Montenegro - 300/1

Morocco - 300/1

Tunisia - 300/1

Greece - 500/1

Honduras - 500/1

Romania - 500/1

China - 1000/1

Jamaica - 1000/1

New Zealand - 1000/1

Northern Ireland - 1000/1

Wales - 1000/1

Canada - 1500/1

North Korea - 1500/1

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T.O. Whenham of Doc’s Sports

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