2013-14 Season Projection, You Can Help

Curious about Analytics? Monte Carlo Analysis? Markov Chains? The Wisdom of Crowds? Lets start projecting the season by announcing our guess at the final league table.

Over at Cartilage Free Captain, they are beginning a project to compete with the projection system used by Bloomberg Sports. Being interested in the same sort of things, I want to get in on the action here. The first step would be to have a league table projection just by combining the guesses from a large group of people. I have a feeling, that this in and of itself might best the best mathematical systems. Cartilage Free Captain will be collecting guesses at the final league table on their site, and I'd like to get as many as I can from our members as well. Simply leave a comment with the teams ranked in what you believe the final order is.

Starting in about week five I hope to have a system running that lets me simulate games. To the best of my knowledge, I'm doing it different than most systems I've seen. So it has a very high probability of blowing up in my face. If you never hear of my system again, it's probably because I failed so bad I don't want to talk about.

My hope however is that, even if my system doesn't work well and is flawed, we can all learn something by seeing the results and discussing my methodology. Perhaps you yourself have an idea that can be integrated in the model.

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